Blog Posts
Part II: What’s going on
The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for the 4th quarter of 2012 printed minus .01%. That is not good. True, looking at the individual components shows some upside. Consumer spending grew 2.2%. Housing advanced off a low bottom. Tech spending was up. Inventories and...
A Golden Age
It's easy to forget and lose perspective about what is happening in this world. From uncertainty in our economy and in Europe, the looming fiscal cliff, and most recently the tragedy in Newtown, we may be feeling lost and unsure about the future. Just turn on any news...
Part I: Ignoring the Fundamentals?
Is The Fiscal Cliff is now behind us? “…$620 billion in tax increases is spread over 10 years, so it is only $62 billion in 2013. To put this in perspective, the Federal budget deficit in 2011 was a whopping $1.089 trillion. This amounts to only 5.7% of the 2011...
Are You at Risk of the Tail?
If you’re an investor worried about another major decline in the markets like the one experienced in 2008-2009, then you’re worried about something called “tail risk”. Just like the probability illustrated on a bell curve, the majority of gains and losses are usually...
Five strategies to fix the biggest problem with your portfolio
The single greatest factor to affect your financial goals for retirement has nothing to do with investment options, asset allocations, bonds or stocks. Rather, it’s the amount you save for retirement year over year. And yet, many struggle to save for retirement...
Duration Duration Duration
Duration is a very important concept for bondholders in today's world of low dividend yields. It measures the degree of risk of principal loss should interest rates rise from our current historically very low levels. For example, a leading investment company offers an...
Is It Safe? Stocks: Pro, Con, and the Dividend Bubble
The U.S. stock market is at post-crash highs in the middle of domestic and world economies optimistically seen as struggling. Does it make sense? Is the market reasonably priced? Is it safe? Well, it depends who you talk to: Pro: The S&P 500 is currently about 16...
Getting There
What is the greatest technological advancement of the last ten years? Most would probably say the smartphone, or perhaps social media sites. I think it is directional drilling and what is referred to as ‘fracking’. Vast reserves of natural gas through this new...
Too Good Not to Share
Mohamed El-Erian, the head of PIMCO, recently delivered this lecture at the St. Louis Fed. Here are two passages from his conclusion: “After diffusing a material threat of a global depression, central banks in the advanced economies did a good job in maintaining a...
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