Part II: What’s going on

The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for the 4th quarter of 2012 printed minus .01%. That is not good. True, looking at the individual components shows some upside. Consumer spending grew 2.2%. Housing advanced off a low bottom. Tech spending was up. Inventories and...

Part I: Ignoring the Fundamentals?

Is The Fiscal Cliff is now behind us? “…$620 billion in tax increases is spread over 10 years, so it is only $62 billion in 2013. To put this in perspective, the Federal budget deficit in 2011 was a whopping $1.089 trillion. This amounts to only 5.7% of the 2011...

Are You at Risk of the Tail?

If you’re an investor worried about another major decline in the markets like the one experienced in 2008-2009, then you’re worried about something called “tail risk”. Just like the probability illustrated on a bell curve, the majority of gains and losses are usually...